Overview
- Rove says New Jersey "could be an upset," projecting Republican gains in the legislature and arguing Jack Ciattarelli can overcome polling that shows Mikie Sherrill ahead 51% to 43% in an October Quinnipiac survey.
- He urges Republicans to "build on the Trump bump" in New Jersey, noting Trump’s statewide margin narrowed from a 16‑point loss in 2020 to six points in 2024, with emphasis on retaining Hispanic and non‑White gains.
- In Virginia, Rove forecasts Republicans hold the attorney general post with Jason Miyares over Jay Jones and limit House of Delegates losses, while polls show Democrat Abigail Spanberger leading Winsome Earle‑Sears for governor by double digits.
- For New York City, he predicts Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani wins in the low‑to‑mid 50s against Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa, aligning with an October Quinnipiac snapshot of 43%–33%–14%.
- Reporters frame Tuesday’s races as an early pulse check one year into President Donald Trump’s second term, with turnout and high‑profile endorsements, including from Barack Obama, highlighted as pivotal factors.