Overview

• The Pakistan Meteorological Department forecasts scattered light to moderate rain, thunderstorms and gusty winds in Karachi and parts of southeastern Sindh through October 2, with light showers recorded in the city on Tuesday.
• Heavier rainfall is likely in Tharparkar, Umerkot and Mirpurkhas with a risk of temporary flooding in low-lying areas, as moist Arabian Sea currents feed into Sindh and a fresh westerly wave approaches upper Pakistan around October 3.
• PMD’s Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre is tracking the well-marked low over Gujarat, expected to enter the northeast Arabian Sea around October 1 with potential to intensify into a depression or tropical cyclone, though no direct threat to Pakistan’s coast is indicated at present.
• The India Meteorological Department has red and orange alerts in parts of Gujarat including Saurashtra-Kutch through October 2 with isolated very heavy rain, while Maharashtra shifts to lighter alerts with Mumbai and Pune likely to see light to moderate showers through October 3.
• Pakistan’s Flood Forecasting Division reports medium flood on the Indus at Kotri and reservoirs at or near capacity, with Tarbela full and Mangla nearing full, raising sensitivity to any additional heavy rainfall.