Overview

• Jeffrey Schmid said broad labor cooling aligns with easing price pressures but warned recent readings raise the chance of a sharper-than-expected downturn.
• He defended last month’s 25-basis-point cut as a risk-management move and said it was not a call for aggressive reductions.
• With key government reports paused by the shutdown, he plans to monitor private labor and price gauges until official data return.
• Futures tracked by CME Group imply about a 95% chance of another quarter-point cut at the next meeting, even as President Trump urges faster easing.
• Separately, Fed board member Stephen Miran said the neutral rate has fallen, making policy more restrictive, and cautioned about risks without adjustment while downplaying tariffs’ role in inflation and expressing confidence delayed data will be available before the meeting.