Overview

• Only 28% of Americans believe the country is on the right track, a figure historically associated with incumbent party losses.
• No incumbent party has won an election with less than 39% of voters believing the country is on the right track.
• Despite unfavorable fundamentals, Harris' campaign draws hope from the 2022 midterms where Democrats defied expectations.
• Key issues like Trump's unpopularity and abortion rights may still influence voter sentiment in Harris' favor.
• Polls show Harris is more popular than Trump, though the election remains closely contested in swing states.