Overview

• Harris has set an end-of-summer deadline to choose between launching a 2026 California gubernatorial campaign or conserving resources for a potential 2028 presidential run.
• A UC Irvine School of Social Ecology poll places her atop the crowded Democratic primary with 24% support, but a hypothetical November match shows only a 41–29% lead over likely Republican opponents with heavy undecided voter percentages.
• An Echelon Insight survey shows Harris leading a 20-candidate 2028 Democratic primary test at 26%, while an Emerson College poll paints a different picture with Pete Buttigieg ahead at 16% versus her 13%.
• None of her Democratic rivals—including Katie Porter, Antonio Villaraigosa, Xavier Becerra and Eleni Kounalakis—has withdrawn, ensuring a competitive primary that could erode her early advantage.
• Persistent patterns of late-deciding voters and unaddressed statewide challenges such as homelessness and budget deficits underscore the electoral risks tied to either political path.