Overview
- Kalshi introduced Kalshi Research to give academics access to what it describes as one of the largest regulated prediction‑market datasets and to advance market signals for policy and business use.
- The company announced a Prediction Market Conference and said researchers from Harvard, Stanford, Yale, and the University of Chicago have signed on.
- An internal study covering February 2023 through mid‑2025 reports Kalshi’s CPI forecasts had a 40% lower average error than Wall Street consensus.
- The study says forecasts matched or beat consensus in 85% of week‑ahead inflation prints, cut mean absolute error by 50% during shock periods, and raised the odds of a surprise when diverging by more than 0.1 percentage point.
- The research push follows rapid expansion, including a $1 billion raise at an $11 billion valuation and growth via integrations such as the Phantom wallet, while state‑level legal challenges continue.