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K-Shaped U.S. Economy Deepens as Fed and Major Brands Flag a Split Consumer

Fresh data show wealthy households driving most spending growth.

Overview

  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cited anecdotal evidence that lower-income Americans are pulling back while higher earners keep spending.
  • Company updates point to a bifurcated market, with McDonald’s reporting double-digit traffic declines among low-income diners as higher-income visits rose, and Procter & Gamble and Chipotle noting pressure on less affluent customers.
  • Analysts warn a pause to SNAP benefits during the government funding standoff would create significant hardship for millions who rely on the program each month.
  • Moody’s Analytics and Bank of America data indicate the top earners now account for an outsized share of consumer outlays, with higher-income wage growth around 4% year over year versus under 1% for lower-income workers and luxury spending up 8%.
  • Economists and corporate trackers highlight rising auto-loan delinquencies, intense bargain hunting, and weakening consumer sentiment as signs of mounting strain on lower- and middle-income households.