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June Inflation Accelerates to 2.7% as Tariffs Begin to Weigh on Prices

Upcoming August tariffs alongside EU countermeasures are clouding the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut outlook.

The U.S. flag is seen on a building on Wall St. in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 24, 2020. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo
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Groceries are seen at a Walmart supermarket in Houston, Texas, on May 15, 2025.

Overview

  • Bureau of Labor Statistics data show CPI rose 2.7% year over year in June, up from 2.4% in May, while core CPI increased 2.9% on an annual basis.
  • Prices for apparel, footwear and furniture and bedding climbed in June, rising 0.4%, 0.7% and 0.4% respectively, signaling early pass-through of tariff costs.
  • President Trump rolled out new 20%–50% tariffs on goods from more than 20 countries—including 35% on Canadian imports and 30% on Mexican and EU products—set to take effect on August 1.
  • Frequent pauses and reversals in trade policy have prompted companies to delay price adjustments until the August 1 tariff round clarifies final costs.
  • The European Union has opened negotiations and prepared potential countermeasures against U.S. levies, complicating global trade dynamics.