Overview
- Private consultancies broadly estimate national July inflation around 1.8–1.9%, a result that would keep the recent downward trend intact if confirmed.
- The City of Buenos Aires reported a 2.9% jump in July that private analysts say was driven mainly by seasonal tourism and travel services, which have heavier weight in the porteño basket.
- Analysts singled out a near 9% rise in vegetable prices as a channel that could transmit upward pressure from local food shocks into the national index.
- Market signals have already shifted toward higher inflation risk as investors moved into inflation‑linked CER bonds and breakeven rates climbed toward 2%, while the Treasury faces large mid‑August redemptions.
- Dollar liquidity and bank behavior are key second‑half risks because roughly USD 7 billion sits in dollar deposits and banks may conserve cash before the 2027 electoral cycle, which could tighten dollar supply and influence price transmission.