Overview

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline CPI increased 0.2% in July and 2.7% year-over-year, while core inflation excluding food and energy rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year.
• Investors pushed the odds of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in September to about 90%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
• Tariff impacts showed up unevenly, with prices jumping in categories like household furnishings, footwear and used cars and trucks.
• Goldman Sachs economists estimate that U.S. companies and foreign exporters absorbed most tariff costs through June, but consumer shares are expected to grow as inventories deplete and firms defend margins.
• President Trump’s dismissal of BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer, the nomination of E.J. Antoni and ongoing hiring freezes have shrunk data collection capacity and fueled warnings about future report volatility.