Overview
- Several policy groups and analysts have revised preliminary COLA forecasts into roughly 3.4%–3.6% after July’s CPI showed 3.4% year‑over‑year inflation.
- The Senior Citizens League now projects a 3.6% COLA while AARP and independent analyst Mary Johnson put their estimates at about 3.5% and 3.4% respectively.
- These figures are provisional because the Social Security Administration calculates the COLA from the average CPI‑W for July through September and will announce the final number in mid‑October.
- Retirees’ net gains will be reduced by expected Medicare Part B premium increases that are likely to be announced in the fall and are projected to rise about 3.5% next year.
- Budget analysts such as the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget offer a lower 3.2% scenario and warn that larger COLAs raise near‑term program costs for a trust fund facing long‑term solvency pressures.