Overview
- Wednesday's July CPI‑W release showed a 3.4% year‑over‑year rise, and analysts including Mary Johnson and the Senior Citizens League used that data to trim 2027 COLA estimates to roughly 3.4%–3.6%.
- The COLA is computed by averaging the CPI‑W for July through September and comparing that third‑quarter average with the same period a year earlier, and the Social Security Administration will announce the official increase in mid‑October.
- A roughly 3.6% COLA would raise the average monthly benefit by about $75, but those gains can be reduced when Medicare Part B premiums and deductibles are set in the fall.
- Projections now expect Medicare Part B premiums to rise next year, with one estimate near a 3.5% increase to about $209.50, though final Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services figures will be released in the fall.
- What to watch next: August and September CPI‑W readings that feed the COLA formula, the SSA's October announcement of the official COLA, and the CMS fall decisions on 2027 Medicare premiums that will determine net benefit changes for seniors.