Overview

• July’s CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year while core CPI climbed 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, driven largely by shelter costs.
• Selective pass-through of President Trump’s tariffs appeared in categories such as furniture, footwear and household furnishings, with companies including Procter & Gamble and e.l.f. Beauty announcing price hikes.
• Futures traders now see about a 90% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, though Fed officials warn that tariff-related inflation could complicate monetary policy.
• The July jobs report showed just 73,000 positions added and sizable downward revisions to May and June, underscoring a weakening labor market.
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics is under strain after the dismissal of Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, budget-driven data-collection cuts and the nomination of E.J. Antoni raise questions about future data continuity.