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July Housing Data Show Florida Gains and a National Construction Pullback

Higher permit counts plus a sharp drop in starts and weaker contract signings suggest builders are delaying groundbreakings and could keep supply tight.

Overview

  • Florida extended a recovery in July with its 11th straight month of year‑over‑year closed sales gains and the 12th straight rise in new pending single‑family sales, leaving the statewide single‑family median at $425,000.
  • U.S. homebuilders pulled back in July as total residential starts fell 12.4% to a 1.239 million annual pace and single‑family starts dropped nearly 10%, signaling a sharp near‑term slowdown in groundbreakings.
  • Permits rose about 5.0% to a 1.443 million pace while units authorized but not started climbed to roughly 279,000, creating a growing backlog that shows builders are planning projects but pausing on construction.
  • Contract signings cooled nationwide in July with pending home sales down about 2.3% to an index of 71.2, giving buyers more negotiating leverage in many metros even as some markets remain tight.
  • The split picture — strong pockets like Florida, rising local inventories in places such as Minnesota, and a permits‑to‑starts gap nationally — could prolong for‑sale shortages where builders keep projects on hold and slow the return to balanced supply.