Overview

• Headline CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year in July while core CPI climbed 0.3% month-over-month to 3.1% year-over-year, its largest monthly increase in six months.
• Import tariffs began to filter into consumer prices unevenly, with household furnishings, footwear and auto parts showing notable gains as pre-tariff inventories dwindle.
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics suspended price collection in select cities and raised different-cell imputations to 35%, intensifying concerns about the accuracy of inflation data.
• President Trump dismissed BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer after weak July payrolls and hefty downward revisions to May and June, and nominated E.J. Antoni to lead the agency.
• Futures markets now signal roughly a 90% probability of a Federal Reserve quarter-point rate cut at the September policy meeting following the CPI release.