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JPMorgan Warns Strategy Faces Billions in Forced Outflows as MSCI Weighs Crypto-Treasury Ban

Passive index trackers would have to sell if MSCI enforces a 50% crypto-asset threshold, making the January 15 decision a key test for these balance-sheet heavyweights.

Overview

  • MSCI is consulting on excluding companies whose digital-asset holdings are 50% or more of total assets, with a ruling due January 15, 2026 and any changes to take effect in the February index review.
  • JPMorgan estimates about $2.8 billion could exit Strategy from MSCI-linked funds, with total outflows rising to $8.8 billion to $11.6 billion if other index providers adopt similar rules.
  • Roughly $9 billion of Strategy’s float sits in passive vehicles across benchmarks such as MSCI USA, MSCI World and the Nasdaq 100, creating mechanical selling risk if removal occurs.
  • Strategy’s valuation premium to its Bitcoin holdings has collapsed toward roughly 1.0 as shares slide, while funding pressures show up in higher preferred yields near 11.5% and a euro issue trading below its offer price.
  • Michael Saylor rejects the 'fund' label, citing a $500 million software business and new Bitcoin-backed credit products including Stretch and other digital credit offerings totaling about $7.7 billion in notional value, as MSCI’s review spans 38 crypto-linked companies and Strategy’s roughly 649,870 BTC.