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JPMorgan Warns Strategy Could Face Billions in Forced Selling as MSCI Weighs Index Ouster

A pending MSCI ruling on crypto-heavy balance sheets could trigger billions in passive selling, reshaping the company’s access to capital.

Overview

  • MSCI is consulting on excluding companies whose digital-asset holdings are 50% or more of total assets, with a decision due January 15, 2026.
  • JPMorgan estimates roughly $2.8 billion of passive outflows if Strategy is removed from MSCI indexes, rising to as much as $11.6 billion if other providers follow, with about $9 billion currently held by index-tracking funds.
  • Strategy’s stock has fallen sharply as its premium to its bitcoin holdings has collapsed toward parity, raising risks to liquidity, trading volumes, and future equity or debt issuance.
  • Michael Saylor rejects characterization as a fund, citing a $500 million software business and five digital credit offerings (STRK, STRF, STRD, STRC, STRE) totaling over $7.7 billion in notional value, including a bitcoin-backed credit instrument offering variable USD yields.
  • The company continues to buy bitcoin and reports holdings of about 649,870 BTC while remaining in benchmarks such as the Nasdaq 100 and MSCI USA as the review proceeds.