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JPMorgan Warns MSCI Review Puts Strategy’s Index Status at Risk, Threatening Billions in Passive Outflows

MSCI plans a January 15 ruling on whether crypto‑heavy balance sheets belong in equity benchmarks.

Overview

  • JPMorgan estimates roughly $2.8 billion could exit if Strategy is dropped from MSCI indices, with total passive outflows potentially reaching $11.6 billion if other providers follow.
  • MSCI is consulting on excluding companies whose digital‑asset holdings exceed 50% of total assets, with feedback due by December 31 and any changes expected to take effect in the February 2026 rebalance.
  • About $9 billion of Strategy’s market value sits in index‑tracking vehicles, and the company currently appears in the Nasdaq 100, MSCI USA, MSCI World and other benchmarks.
  • Strategy’s stock has fallen more than 40% in recent weeks as its premium to its bitcoin holdings has collapsed toward roughly 1.1, while newer preferred securities have weakened and funding yields have risen.
  • Michael Saylor says the firm is an operating company rather than a fund, continues to accumulate bitcoin—now about 649,870 BTC—and has denied selling during the recent market downturn.