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JPMorgan Survey Finds Midsize Firms Cool on U.S. Economy but Confident in Their Own 2026 Prospects

The 15-year survey of more than 1,400 middle‑market executives points to 'cautious optimism' centered on company-level growth plans.

Overview

  • Only 39% of respondents are optimistic about the national economy for 2026, down sharply from 65% a year earlier.
  • Confidence at the firm level remains high, with 71% upbeat about their own outlook, 73% expecting higher revenue, and 64% projecting increased profits.
  • Leaders plan to push innovation, with 58% saying they will introduce new products or services.
  • M&A is gaining traction as a growth tactic, with 39% including deals in their 12‑month plans, up from 31% last year.
  • Recession expectations are divided, as 51% do not foresee one and 26% expect one or say it has begun, while geopolitical and AI uncertainties weigh on sentiment.