Overview

• A JPMorgan analysis compares bitcoin to gold on a risk-adjusted basis and implies a theoretical price near $165,000, about 40–42% above current levels.
• Bitcoin traded around $119,000–$120,000 as the report circulated, leaving roughly a $45,000–$50,000 gap to the modeled parity level.
• The exercise assumes bitcoin’s market cap would need to rise about 42% to align with roughly $6 trillion in privately held gold, with the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio now below 2.0.
• Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stress the figure is illustrative rather than a firm forecast and hinges on the persistence of ETF inflows and broader macro conditions.
• Recent spot bitcoin ETF net inflows totaled $675.8 million on Oct. 1 led by BlackRock and Fidelity, while institutions have been more active via CME futures as derivatives open interest climbs.