Overview

• Bitcoin traded around $119,000 at publication, roughly $50,000 below JPMorgan’s model-implied level.
• The bank’s gold-relative framework puts fair value near $165,000 based on a Bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio below 2.0.
• Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou link demand to a growing “debasement trade” driven by inflation concerns, rising deficits, and questions over central-bank independence.
• Retail investors have poured money into spot bitcoin and gold ETFs since late 2024, with gold funds catching up since August as cumulative inflows narrow the gap.
• Institutional participation has skewed to CME futures rather than ETFs, with positioning momentum weaker than retail flows, and JPMorgan characterizes its estimate as a relative valuation rather than a timed forecast.