Overview
- A JPMorgan note estimates about $2.8 billion could exit if MSCI removes Strategy from the MSCI USA and MSCI World indices, rising to as much as $11.6 billion if other index providers follow similar rules.
- MSCI is consulting on excluding companies whose digital-asset holdings exceed 50% of total assets, with a decision due January 15, 2026, and has said it will not speculate on outcomes.
- Roughly $9 billion of Strategy’s market exposure sits in passive index-tracking vehicles, creating a mechanical selling risk if benchmark removal occurs.
- Strategy’s valuation premium to its bitcoin holdings has collapsed toward nearly 1.0 by mNAV, and the shares have fallen far more than bitcoin in recent weeks as index-removal fears intensify.
- Funding conditions have deteriorated with preferred securities selling off and yields rising, raising concerns about liquidity, trading volumes, and future capital-raising capacity.