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João Campos Dominates Pernambuco Governor Race in New Poll as Senate Field Tightens

The Dec. 29–30 poll of 1,200 voters shows a double-digit lead within a ±3-point margin of error.

Overview

  • Real Time Big Data reports João Campos at 56% for governor, with Raquel Lyra in the high 20s and other names in single digits.
  • Rejection rates weigh on the incumbent, with 45% saying they would not vote for Lyra versus roughly 30% for Campos.
  • The two-seat Senate contest is highly competitive, with Marília Arraes peaking at 26% and Humberto Costa and Miguel Coelho at 24%, leaving the top five within the poll’s ±3-point margin.
  • Respondents could choose two Senate candidates because two seats will be on the ballot in 2026, so the percentages do not total 100%.
  • In the same survey, Lula leads presidential preference among Pernambuco voters with about 55%–56% across tested scenarios.