Overview

• Ernst confirmed in a video that she will retire at the end of her term, citing family considerations after “prayer and reflection,” and noting her service as the first female combat veteran in the Senate.
• An open-seat scramble is underway with Democrats Zach Wahls, Josh Turek, Jackie Norris, and Nathan Sage running, and Republicans Jim Carlin and Joshua Smith already in, while Rep. Ashley Hinson signaled she will announce plans soon.
• Hinson’s expected Senate bid could trigger a competitive House race in northeastern Iowa, adding down-ballot consequences to the GOP’s defense of the seat.
• Democratic leaders cast the vacancy as a threat to the GOP’s Senate majority, though the Cook Political Report had previously rated the seat as likely Republican.
• Ernst’s decision followed a year of pressure that included backlash to her town-hall remark on Medicaid cuts and initial hesitancy over confirming Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, set against Iowa’s recent rightward tilt and Trump’s 13-point 2024 win.