Overview

• Conservatives lost 674 council seats in last month’s local elections, many to Reform UK.
• While 57% of Reform UK supporters rate Johnson’s premiership positively, only 15% would back him over Farage for prime minister.
• Senior Conservative MPs have publicly rejected any Johnson comeback and threatened to leave the party if he pursued a return.
• Fewer than half of current Tory voters expect Kemi Badenoch to lead the party into the next election, intensifying leadership doubts.
• Among Reform UK backers, Robert Jenrick is the most popular alternative for Tory leader, securing 35% support.