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Johnny Manziel Promotes Kalshi Market After GameDay No-Show, Odds Jump

His post citing a 34% chance of a 2026 return was followed by a rapid rise in the market price.

Overview

  • Nearly two weeks after missing a Dec. 20 guest picker slot on ESPN’s College GameDay, Manziel used a social post to steer fans to a Kalshi market on whether he will appear in 2026.
  • In the message, he said he was on good terms with ESPN and Pat McAfee and told followers they could “trade” on his return, pointing to a 34% probability shown at the time.
  • Shortly after the post, the market’s implied probability climbed sharply, with one outlet noting a rise to about 59% within an hour.
  • It remains unclear whether his post was a paid advertisement, and coverage notes Kalshi has recently faced criticism for aggressive and questionable marketing choices.
  • ESPN has not publicly explained the original no-show, and any 2026 appearance would depend on GameDay locations that are typically not announced until mid-summer.