Overview

• Nonfarm payrolls rose by 22,000 in August and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, the highest since 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• Prior months were revised lower, with June cut to a 13,000 job loss and June–July net hiring reduced by 21,000, underscoring a weaker recent trend.
• Rate-cut odds for mid-September climbed to near certainty on CME FedWatch as Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year near 4.10% and the two-year around 3.50%.
• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq advanced to fresh record highs after the report, reflecting investor expectations for looser Federal Reserve policy.
• Leading indicators had flagged softness, including ADP’s 54,000 private-job gain and higher jobless claims, while analysts cited tariff and immigration policy shifts as additional hiring headwinds; some economists said the weak data could put a larger cut on the table.