Overview
- The Jiji analysis, using 2024 results, estimates that shifting roughly 10,000 Komeito votes per district to CDP candidates would flip 35 single-seat contests.
- Under that scenario, single-seat totals would reverse to 139 for the CDP and 97 for the LDP, with Jiji noting Komeito’s district vote strength is often 10,000–20,000 and could amplify the effect.
- Komeito is reported to forgo nominating candidates in single-seat districts and to coordinate on a unified proportional-representation list with the CDP as a centrist bloc.
- LDP tax chief Itsunori Onodera said the arrangement would affect contested districts and stressed the need to secure a parliamentary base for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s policy agenda, including responsible expansionary fiscal policy.
- Both Jiji and regional reporting caution that outcomes depend on local dynamics, lingering LDP–Komeito ties in some areas, and whether the new party’s name and branding gain recognition during the compressed campaign.