Overview
- Russian forces have upgraded Shahed/Geran drones with jet engines so they fly faster and higher, making them harder to intercept and causing deaths and damage in Kyiv.
- Ukraine's interception rate against the new jet drones has been roughly in the mid‑50s to about 60 percent, leaving a steady flow of strikes to reach the city despite layered defenses.
- Kyiv is testing new domestic interceptors and changing tactics while urgently negotiating to buy tens of thousands of 20 mm rounds so F‑16s can use their onboard cannon to shoot the drones.
- Maintenance backlogs have put more than half of Ukraine's F‑16 fleet temporarily out of service, which limits how many jets can fire large amounts of 20 mm ammunition and sustain high sortie rates.
- The pressure on air defenses is forcing reliance on volunteer gun crews and expensive missile interceptors, and it raises the risk that missile stocks and aircraft readiness will further erode unless international support for ammo and sustainment increases.