Overview
- J.P. Morgan analyst Jamie Baker argues JetBlue is more likely to be acquired than to enter Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
- Baker highlights United’s new partnership with JetBlue, noting a combined domestic share of roughly 16% that would match American and Delta.
- He flags the Surface Transportation Board’s review of Union Pacific’s proposed purchase of Norfolk Southern, expected to stretch into 2027, as a bellwether for large transportation mergers.
- The analysis points to a practical airline deal window in 2026–2027, while Spirit’s ongoing bankruptcy could enable a nearer-term transaction.
- Market-share scenarios cited in the note include JetBlue–Alaska at about 7% and JetBlue–Southwest at roughly 22%, with JetBlue’s JFK access viewed as a key strategic asset.