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2h ago

Jerry Strengthening Toward Hurricane as It Nears Leeward Islands

Most guidance keeps the center offshore of the U.S., with the northern Leewards bracing for rain, rough surf and possible tropical-storm conditions.

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Overview

  • As of early Wednesday, Jerry had 50 mph winds and was 835–890 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest near 23 mph.
  • The storm is forecast to slow and turn northward on Friday, with its core passing near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday into Friday.
  • Tropical storm watches cover islands including Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, St. Barthelemy, St. Martin/Sint Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius and Guadeloupe.
  • Two to four inches of rain could trigger flash flooding in the Leewards, and swells are expected to bring life-threatening surf and dangerous rip currents, with peripheral effects possible for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
  • Most model guidance shows a recurvature east of Bermuda and well offshore of the U.S., while a separate Bay of Campeche disturbance has a low (about 10%) chance of brief development before moving into southern Mexico with heavy rain.