Overview

• Jefferies projects $50–70 billion of fresh equity inflows over the next 12 months even as foreign positioning remains at multi‑year lows.
• The firm also estimates $50–70 billion of new equity supply in the same period, with MSCI India near 22x forward earnings and roughly 25x excluding financials.
• Domestic mutual funds drew about $21 billion in the first five months of the fiscal year, with SIPs contributing around $3 billion a month and absorbing an estimated $6–10 billion of monthly supply.
• Jefferies keeps a near‑term sideways view and sees potential for a fresh rally next calendar year if growth strengthens with help from GST cuts and possible RBI easing after the Fed’s rate cut.
• Positioning favors small‑ and mid‑caps despite a valuation premium, and the latest model portfolio adds Ambuja Cements, Le Travenues Technology and Lemon Tree Hotels while exiting Reliance and Axis Bank and trimming ICICI Bank, JSW Energy and REC.