Overview

• Jefferies projects $50–70 billion of fresh equity issuance over the next 12 months driven by IPOs, private‑equity exits and promoter stake sales.
• Domestic mutual funds have taken in about $21 billion in the first five months of the fiscal year, with SIPs contributing roughly $3 billion each month.
• The brokerage’s base case is a rangebound market for the rest of 2025 as those inflows offset an estimated $6–10 billion of monthly share supply.
• Foreign ownership has slipped to about 16% from 22% at end‑2019, with MSCI India suffering its worst one‑year relative underperformance versus emerging markets since 1996.
• Jefferies flags frothy small‑ and mid‑cap valuations and a heavy issuance skew to those segments as key near‑term volatility risks.