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Jara Leads as Chile Enters Poll Blackout Before Nov. 16 Vote

A 15-day blackout on publishing polls now sets the stage for a first round on November 16 with a potential December 14 runoff.

Overview

  • Final surveys released before the embargo consistently place Jeannette Jara in first place but below the majority needed to win outright.
  • Fragmented right-wing support leaves the second-place slot unsettled, with most polls keeping José Antonio Kast in that position even as some show him losing momentum to Johannes Kaiser.
  • Black&White’s last poll puts Jara at 30%, Kast at 23%, Kaiser at 20% and Evelyn Matthei at 17%.
  • La Cosa Nostra projects Jara at 33.5% and indicates a tight contest for second, with Kaiser and Matthei near 19.3% and Kast around 17.7%.
  • Chilean law now bars media from publishing new polls for 15 days; the first round is set for November 16 and a December 14 runoff will be held if no candidate surpasses 50%.