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Japan’s Top Union Sets 2026 Pay Goal Above 5% as Wage Talks Begin

Economists say higher U.S. tariffs are squeezing exporters, with labor shortages still pushing wages higher.

Overview

  • Rengo will seek overall wage hikes of 5% or more in 2026, including base‑pay increases of over 3%.
  • The confederation set a higher target of at least 6% for small and medium‑sized firms to narrow pay gaps with large companies.
  • Rengo also aims for a minimum hourly wage of 1,300 yen, raising its benchmark by 50 yen from this year’s demand.
  • This year’s negotiations delivered an average pay increase of about 5.25%, the biggest in 34 years, yet real wages have mostly stayed negative due to inflation.
  • Analysts expect somewhat smaller gains next year, citing profit pressure from U.S. tariffs, while persistent labor shortages and the push for a consumption‑led recovery support continued increases that the Bank of Japan views as important.