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7h ago

Japan’s Single-Seat Battles Tighten Ahead of July 20 Vote

These races will determine whether the ruling coalition secures the mandate to expand cash handouts in the face of inflationary pressures

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Overview

  • Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has campaigned in Kumamoto for LDP candidate Baba Narishige, stressing the coalition’s promise of prompt cash payments to households hit by rising prices.
  • In Wakayama, a rare conservative split has emerged between factions aligned with Nobuyasu Nikai and Yoshio Mochizuki, joined by a record seven first-time candidates.
  • Polls conducted July 12–15 show over 30 percent of voters in Iwate and Saitama remain undecided, injecting fresh uncertainty into these one-seat contests.
  • Analysis of X posts through July 13 indicates the NHK Party candidate in Aichi led with about 8.2 million name mentions, nearly 100 times that of the lowest-ranked contender.
  • The outcomes in these key districts will shape the LDP-Komeito coalition’s ability to push through its inflation relief agenda via expanded cash handouts.