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Japan’s Ruling Coalition Set to Lose Upper House Majority as Far-Right Surges

Investor jitters have driven bond yields to multidecade highs; the yen has slid to multimonth lows ahead of a likely hung upper house

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Tourists and pedestrians fill the streets of Shibuya on June 29, 2025 in Tokyo, Japan.
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People cross the iconic Shibuya crossroad on June 17, 2025, in Tokyo, Japan.

Overview

  • Opinion polls forecast the LDP-Komeito bloc will win fewer than the 125 seats needed to retain its majority in Sunday’s upper house vote.
  • Sanseito is projected to capture 10–15 seats on an anti-immigrant platform that echoes far-right movements in the US and Europe.
  • Sanseito leader Sohei Kamiya has denied any special ties to Russia after a party candidate’s interview with Sputnik state media.
  • Yields on Japanese government bonds have climbed to multidecade peaks as the yen weakens against the dollar and euro on political uncertainty.
  • A hung upper house could compel Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to forge deals with smaller parties on tax cuts and spending, heightening risks to Japan’s heavy public debt.