Overview

• Exit polls by NHK and other outlets project the LDP-Komeito alliance to win just 32 to 51 of the 125 seats contested, below the 50 needed for a majority in the 248-seat upper house.
• The setback would leave Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s government a minority in both chambers for the first time since the coalition’s formation in the 1950s, complicating its legislative agenda.
• Voter frustration over rising inflation, a surge in staple food prices and a recent political funding scandal drove a shift toward smaller and populist parties, notably right-wing Sanseito.
• Ishiba has vowed to remain in office despite intensifying calls for his resignation and faces the task of cobbling together ad-hoc alliances to pass key measures.
• The loss adds uncertainty to critical negotiations with President Trump, with a 25 percent U.S. tariff set to kick in on August 1 if no trade agreement is reached.