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Japan’s Ruling Coalition Projected to Lose Upper House Majority

Voter rejection projected for the coalition turns Japan’s ruling alliance into a minority, heightening risks of parliamentary gridlock ahead of a U.S. trade deadline.

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Voters fill in their ballots in the upper house election at a polling station Sunday, July 20, 2025, in Tokyo. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko)
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Overview

  • Exit polls and early counts show the LDP-Komeito coalition winning only 46 of the 125 contested seats, falling short of the 50 needed to retain an upper house majority.
  • The projected outcome marks the first time since 1955 that an LDP-led government will be a minority in both houses of parliament.
  • Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has accepted the results and declared his intention to stay in office despite rising calls for his resignation.
  • The right-wing Sanseito party surged from one seat to at least 13, reflecting voter dissatisfaction over inflation and stagnant wages.
  • A fully minority parliament risks gridlock on key domestic reforms and could complicate U.S.–Japan trade negotiations before an August 1 tariff deadline.