Overview

• Opinion polls project the LDP-Komeito coalition will win fewer than 50 of the 125 contested seats, stripping it of an upper house majority.
• Yields on Japanese government bonds have surged to record highs and the yen has slid to multi-month lows as markets price in fiscal uncertainty.
• Sanseito’s hard-right “Japan First” platform is forecast to capture around 10–15 seats, drawing support from disaffected LDP voters.
• Rice prices have doubled over the past year, fueling voter anger and driving opposition promises of tax cuts and increased welfare spending.
• A loss of majority control could force Ishiba to resign or negotiate cross-party alliances, complicating efforts to secure a US-Japan trade deal ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline.