Overview

• Opinion polls ahead of Sunday’s vote show the LDP-Komeito coalition risks falling short of the 50 contested seats needed to retain its Upper House majority.
• Sanseito is projected to win 10 or more seats by capitalizing on anti-immigration, anti-woke and anti-net-zero platforms accompanied by high-value spending promises.
• Tokyo’s long-term borrowing costs have jumped to multi-decade highs as markets brace for potential fiscal strain from generous spending pledges.
• A 25% U.S. tariff on Japanese imports is set to take effect on August 1, intensifying external economic pressure on Tokyo.
• Main opposition parties remain too fragmented to mount a viable governing alternative, leaving Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s future and policy agenda in doubt.