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Japan’s October Exports Beat Forecasts as Asia and Europe Offset U.S. Weakness

Tariff pressure on U.S.-bound goods persists despite a September pact, leaving growth dependent on other markets.

Overview

  • Government data show exports rose 3.6% year over year in October, beating the 1.1% forecast and following a 4.2% rise in September.
  • Shipments to Asia increased 4.2% and to Western Europe 8.8%, while exports to the United States fell 3.1%.
  • Imports unexpectedly grew 0.7%, producing a trade deficit of ¥231.8 billion that was narrower than the ¥280.1 billion economists expected.
  • Reuters reported the economy contracted in the July–September quarter for the first time in six quarters, with U.S. tariffs cited as a drag on exports.
  • A September U.S.–Japan deal set a 15% baseline tariff that eased earlier proposals, yet analysts expect U.S.-bound sales to stay soft as automakers pass costs to consumers, and the Asia Group reported mainland China suspended some Japanese seafood imports.