Overview

• Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to step down after less than a year in office triggered an LDP leadership contest whose winner is expected to be confirmed as prime minister by the Diet.
• The five-candidate field spans conservatives to moderates, with Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi leading in many polls and Sanae Takaichi emerging as the most prominent hard-right contender.
• Former foreign ministers Yoshimasa Hayashi and Toshimitsu Motegi are viewed by some observers as steady diplomatic options, while Takayuki Kobayashi represents another conservative choice.
• The next leader is likely to require cooperation from Komeito and other parties to govern, and Komeito has said it will not join a government led by Takaichi.
• Early debates have centered on inflation, social security, taxes, political reform, and concerns over tariffs from the Trump administration, while foreign policy has received limited attention; Ishiba plans a trip to Busan next week and is reportedly preparing a post-vote speech on World War II lessons.