Overview
- Real GDP contracted 0.4% quarter on quarter in July–September 2025, equal to a 1.8% annualized decline.
- This marks the first negative quarter since January–March 2024 after six quarters without contraction.
- Exports fell 1.2% from the prior quarter, with coverage linking the decline to U.S. high-tariff policy.
- Domestic demand was mixed as private consumption edged up 0.1% and business fixed investment rose 1.0%, while housing investment was described as weak in reports.
- Nominal GDP rose 0.1% on the quarter, and the Cabinet Office figures are a preliminary estimate subject to revision.