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Japan's Export Rebound Delivers November Trade Surplus as U.S. Demand Recovers

Stronger external demand signals bolster bets on a Bank of Japan rate increase this week.

Overview

  • Exports rose 6.1% year on year in November, the fastest pace in nine months and the third straight monthly gain, beating a 4.8% consensus forecast.
  • Shipments to the United States climbed 8.8% and exports to Western Europe posted a double‑digit rise, while sales to China fell 2.4% and exports to Hong Kong rose 11.4%.
  • Imports increased 1.3% from a year earlier, yielding a ¥322.3 billion trade surplus for the month versus expectations for a much smaller surplus.
  • Core machine orders for October jumped 12.5% from a year earlier, a stronger‑than‑expected reading that points to firmer capital spending ahead.
  • A Bank of Japan Tankan survey showed big manufacturers’ sentiment at a four‑year high, and markets widely expect a 25‑basis‑point policy rate hike to 0.75% later this week.