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Japan's Earthquake Risk Rises: 80% Probability of Megaquake in Next 30 Years

Government panel warns of heightened seismic risk along Nankai Trough, with potential for massive tsunamis and widespread destruction.

  • Japan's Earthquake Research Committee has raised the probability of a megaquake in the Nankai Trough to 80-82% within the next 30 years.
  • A megaquake, defined as magnitude 8 or higher, could trigger tsunamis over 30 meters high and cause catastrophic damage to densely populated areas.
  • The Nankai Trough, located along Japan's Pacific coast, is a subduction zone where tectonic plates are stuck, building pressure over time.
  • Historical data shows megaquakes in this region occur every 100-200 years, with the last one recorded in 1946, marking a 79-year gap.
  • Experts urge preparedness, though some seismologists question the predictability of such events, citing the complex nature of earthquake cycles.
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