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Japan’s August Coincident Index Falls for Second Month as BOJ Regions Hold ‘Moderate Recovery’ View

Temporary payback from last year’s stockpiling, with weaker exports, explains the decline.

Overview

  • The Cabinet Office’s coincident index slipped 0.7 point to 113.4 in August, marking a second straight monthly deterioration.
  • In regional reports released a day earlier, the Bank of Japan maintained assessments describing local economies as recovering moderately.
  • Tokai kept its overall view but trimmed its take on personal consumption to a steadier tone as households faced price pressures and heat effects.
  • BOJ regional commentary noted export swings tied to recent U.S. tariff actions, with pre‑tariff front‑loading followed by a pullback in shipments.
  • Auto sector signals were mixed, with finished‑vehicle shipments holding up as some auto parts shipments fell, and officials said the impact of July’s JapanU.S. auto tariff agreement remains hard to gauge.