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3d ago

Japan’s 2025 Births On Track To Drop Below 670,000, Defying Official Forecasts

Analysts reading preliminary data warn of a new record low that heightens pressure on Tokyo’s population strategy.

Japanese women push baby carts in Tokyo on October 2, 2015. Spending among Japanese households rebounded in August, offering a glimmer of hope after a string of weak figures, but economists warned the world's number three economy was still headed for recession. While Japan's jobless rate edged up to 3.4 percent in August, from July's 3.3 percent rate. AFP PHOTO / Yoshikazu TSUNO (Photo credit should read YOSHIKAZU TSUNO/AFP via Getty Images)
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Overview

  • Financial Times analysis of the first 10 months suggests the 2025 total could slip under 670,000, which would be the lowest since records began in 1899 if confirmed.
  • The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research had projected 749,000 births in 2025 and did not foresee a drop below 670,000 until 2041.
  • Japan recorded 686,061 births in 2024 as deaths exceeded births for the 18th straight year, resulting in a net population decline of more than 900,000.
  • The government has committed roughly $23 billion over three years for family supports, and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi created a Population Strategy Headquarters in November 2025.
  • Japan’s super‑aged profile and economic pressures such as stagnant wages, high living costs, and long work hours are weighing on fertility, prompting heavier use of automation and a proposal to accept up to 1.23 million foreign workers by fiscal 2028.