Overview

• Voters are deciding 125 of the 248 seats in the upper house and the LDP-Komeito alliance needs at least 50 to retain control
• A coalition defeat would mark the first time since World War II that the government lacks a majority in both chambers and could prompt Ishiba’s resignation, analysts say
• Widespread voter frustration over stagnant wages, rising living costs and shrinking pensions is undermining support for the ruling alliance
• The right-wing populist Sanseito party is projected to expand its representation from two seats to over ten by appealing to voters on immigration limits and conservative social policies
• Japan risks 25 percent U.S. tariffs from August without a trade agreement, a deadline that could become harder to meet if Ishiba’s mandate weakens