Overview

• The Earthquake Research Committee broadened its long-term assessment from about 80% to a wider range after reanalyzing limited historical and geodetic records.
• A new approach incorporated recognized errors in Muroto Port uplift data and variability in plate strain accumulation.
• A separate method that omitted uplift records produced a 20–50% range, yet officials opted to highlight the higher figure to drive preparedness.
• Panel chair Naoshi Hirata said an event could occur at any time and urged continued readiness, while noting the timing remains unpredictable.
• Government modeling in March projected up to about 298,000 deaths and roughly ¥292 trillion in losses in a magnitude-9 scenario along the trough.